Mobinil rated “Under review” by Naeem

Naeem issued a report om Mobinil, defining its target price at EGP 114.5, representing a downside potential of 34%, compared to its market price of EGP 173.5, and recommending an “Under review “ rating.

Mobinil’s Q4-11 revenue fell 8.1% YoY and 2.2% QoQ to EGP2.5bn, due to weak service revenues (down 8.8% YoY and 3.6% QoQ). FY11 mobile revenues were impacted by severe competition, a significant contraction in tourism and the boycott campaign in H2-11. Top line missed estimate by 4%, owing to weaker-than-expected blended ARPU of EGP24 (vs. EGP26 estimate).

According to Naeem, “the mobil operator ended the year with 32.9m subscribers up 8.9% YoY and 4.2% QoQ, (90.5% deemed active). Mobinil promoted heavily to add 1.34m subscribers in 4Q11, (50% of 2011’s net adds) aiming to repair damage from the boycott campaign due to the “Twitter incident” earlier in the year.

Source: Mubasher